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Proposition 19, which would legalize and regulate production and distribution of marijuana in California, is trailing slightly in the two most recent polls from Field and PPP. Both Field and PPP have the No vote outnumbering the Yes vote by seven percent. SurveyUSA has Prop 19 in slightly better shape, with Yes trailing No by only two points, which is unchanged since last week.
Field (PDF) (10/14-26)
Proposition 19 legalizes marijuana under California but not federal law and permits local governments to regulate and tax its commercial production, distribution and sale. Allows people 21 years or older to possess, cultivate, or transport marijuana for personal use. Fiscal impact: Depending on federal, state and local government actions, potential increased tax and fee revenues in the hundreds of millions of dollars annually and potential correctional savings of several tens of millions of dollars annually. (IF ALREADY VOTED) Did you vote YES or NO on Proposition 19? (IF NOT YET VOTED) If the election were being held today, would you vote YES or NO on Proposition 19?
Yes 42
No 49
Undecided 9
PPP (PDF) (10/29-31)
Proposition 19 would legalize marijuana under California but not federal law. It would permit local governments to regulate and tax
commerical production, distribution, and sale of marijuana. Will you vote yes or no on Proposition 19?
Yes 44
No 51
Undecided 5
SurveyUSA (10/26-31)
California voters may also vote on several propositions. On Proposition 19, which would change California law to legalize marijuana and allow it to be regulated and taxed, are you … Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain?
Certain Yes 44
Certain No 46
Not Certain 10
While the polling is still relatively close, this is not a good sign. For Prop 19 to pass, there will need to be a very large turnout among supporters and young voters who are not being included in the pollsters’ “likely voter” models.
If Prop 19 does outperform the polls and ends up passing, it will likely be the result of some “reverse Bradley effect,” where some voters feel uncomfortable telling a pollster that they support marijuana legalization. While this is uncommon in polling, it is not unheard of. The big pollsters in 2008 all found California’s anti-same sex marriage initiative, Prop 8, losing in their last polls before the election, only to see the measure win with 52 percent of the vote.
Even if Prop 19 does narrowly fail to pass, the margin is still very important. This is a midterm election, which always sees lower youth turnout than presidential elections. This year in particular is expected to have unusually high turnout among older conservatives, which is hurting Prop 19’s chances. The result is a generally unfavorable electorate for the initiative.
Based on the likely change in levels of turnout by different groups, an identical marijuana legalization ballot measure would probably do two to three percent better with the more demographically favorable 2012 electorate. And that is without taking into account the fact that, in general, support for marijuana legalization has been growing steadily every year.
38 Comments
VOTE and JUST SAY NOW!
Correction to your first graf: in the SurveyUSA poll, No is leading, not trailing, by 2 points.
Except that voters get tired of deciding the same issue election after election. Please correct me if I’m wrong, but I think the vote in favor of parental notification has decreased every time the fundies put it on the ballot in California. Voters don’t like being asked the same question over and over again. So there’s that to think about, should a 2012 re-vote be considered.
I know the reason the anti-8 forces waited was just the midterm turnout demographics you describe here, Jon, plus wanting to see the steady, inexorable support for marriage equality move two cycles ahead rather than only one.
fixed
How pathetic this country is. The majority in this country want marijuana to be legalized, want same-sex marriage, and the wars to end. But all it takes is big money thrown at these topics to keep any of these things from happening. This county will never move forward. Never. Because big money continues to make big money when we don’t move forward. I’m sick of living in the dark ages.
“Leave your Communist Gubmint hands off my Medicare.”
In addition to the “reverse Bradley effect” voters, let’s hope there are a whole bunch of cell phone users who are off the polling radar.
I’d guess a lot of people will vote “yes” secretly for one reason or another…e.g., they already secretly smoke pot anyway but don’t want to be honest about it in the polls.
I’m one of those! So is my wife.
I think it’s gonna pass, and the main problem will then be the lawless feds and people like that asshole L.A. sheriff.
Still hoping for the best but it’s a shame this wasn’t on the ballot in ’08. A midterm election with a dispirited Dem voter base is not the ideal time to try to rein in teh stupid. If Brown had the brains and courage to back 19 it might have helped both the initiative AND his campaign.
Of course in 2008 the people who turned out to vote for Prop 8 undoubtedly would have been against legalizing pot too.
If it passes it will be a positive step that hopefully will encourage other states to take the plunge but no, the war on idiotic national drug policy will not yet have been won.
I hope and pray it passes…but will “they” let it pass or will the votes all be skewed…
All day I’ve been seeing PPP polls in a range of 5 to 10 points skewed further toward the conservative side of things than any other. I even saw one that had Joe Miller leading in Alaska where every other poll shows him in a nosedive. Hmmm….
I’m tired of polls, they never ask ME. Pollsters NEVER call the house.
I have voted every year since 1988, I find polling highly inaccurate let’s call it what they should call it. Polling likely White Middle Age Middle Class voters.
It never tells you about likely turnout, its BS. They said it would be close with Obama, it wasn’t close, he blew away McSain in all but the most Red States with small minority populations.
Prop 19 will win, I think FDL is posting this BS to demoralize not encourage.
Craziest year I’ve ever seen. If I were a pollster I would have gone on a long vacation.
Crazy doesn’t explain the ridiculous assumptions they’re making about likely voters. I’m just not seeing what they are describing.
You’re calling Lee an A Hole? That’s, like, dude, the nicest thing anyone can say about him. Dude. I’m counting my pennies and quarters, okay? Ha! (I happen to live in a neighborhood that already has a LOT of Stores.) Not that I’ve been to any – I haven’t, but my husband googled it and told me so. T’would be reaaaaal niiiiice.
BTW, my one living here child asked me if 19 passes, would I be growing in the yard. He doesn’t smoke, but has friends you do. I told him No Way. It would be stolen as soon as it started to bud.
In the event some FDLers haven’t seen this already, the above link is to a Science Daily piece summarizing a study published in Lancet earlier today.
By the way, Cannabis is #8 on the list.
I hear there’s alot of Mexican money fighting it…AND the private prison industry.
CA burned a billion bucks worth of pot a couple of years ago when they were sinking like a rock. It’s just stupid not to legalize it.
and I don’t even like the stuff.
Grow it along the ground. It looks like a….weed. as long as your kid can keep from bragging about, it should be alright.
I never liked the clientele…that’s why I would never do it.
I don’t know, I’ve seen some pretty gnarly side effects from Meth… ICK!
It doesn’t grow like ground cover. It grows tall. My kid would say anything. I know, on both counts. ????
It also has a scent that a lot of people would recognize. I’ve grown it before. About 15 years ago. I know.
Freaking me. He wouldn’t say anything.
Prop 19 being on the ballot will definitely motivate people to go out and vote for Brown. meg is toast!
When the voters finally stake this thing in the heart, I hope that Firedoglake and others will leave it staked……………….
Not sure that I understand. Just because Prop 19 might fail tomorrow means that FDL should drop the issue of marijuana reform for good.
Eff that. Regardless of the success or failure of Prop 19, this is just the beginning. My state and many other states don’t even have medical mj yet. No way will I be shoved back in the closet.
I easily talked EVERYONE I spoke to today into voting FOR it. I am very convincing. Maybe it is that girl scout leader thing, or my fervent belief brown people should not be targeted. Whatever, you throw concern at me, I can counter it.
Imagine what difference it would have made if big media didn’t blackball me. Like if “Morning Joe” had taken me seriously. The Tea Party was my big fat idea, they could have had me on to talk about it. That might have been interesting.
Well you know what?
They are discriminating against me for my religion, and that is not a good idea.
Not any more, now you are out.
Oops. I thought you were responding to #7.
Any time is the time to try to rein in the stupid.
Maybe they are exposing themselves. Now is the time to be watching for it.
As a person who has actually been paid to do actual polling (market testing interviews), I can attest that they are SOOOOOOOO easy to skew.
If you told me what results you wanted to achieve, I could have no problem producing them for you $$. I do have that skill or ability. But, since I am an ethical person, I personally would never do it. But, I know others would.
So of course I would have fun catching them doing it, if I could. It would be totally embarrassing for them, and really nasty for them if they ended up going to jail over it.
I wonder how many hundreds of years it has been since that was really news.
My instant local poll of 2 guys yields two yes votes. One was a young store clerk. The other was a retired truck driver who said, “Us closet users will go in tomorrow and put it over the top. We don’t talk to people about it, but we’ll vote, ‘Yes …’”
Just one old fart weighing in here. My guess is that this was a tool to get the young folks out to vote in an election they didn’t give a crap about otherwise. I’m all in favor of legalization, always have been. But the amount of time that has been given to this essentially local issue on this site during this election cycle has been staggering. We’ll see tomorrow if all that energy was well spent or not…
I think it’s more than that. This has attracted international attention. It’s a new direction for drug policy. And I know some old GA boys that would say yes to legalization. Spent some time in GA myself.
Nice study today out of Britain indicating pot was way down the list of harmful substances, and I’d guess they still ranked it too high, below tobacco, cocaine, and heroin, way below alcohol (top entry), but above methadone, and LSD I think. I suspect it ranks even lower …