Washington State’s Initiative 502, which would legalize, regulate and tax marijuana, is currently leading in the polls. According to polling by PPP 47 percent of Washington voters say they plan to vote for it compared to just 39 percent who say they plan to vote against it. From PPP:

Washington Initiative 502 would license and regulate marijuana production, distribution, and possessions for persons over 21; remove state-law criminal and civil penalties for activities that it authorizes; tax marijuana sales; and earmark marijuana-related revenues. If the election was today, would you vote yes or no on Initiative 502?
Yes …………………………………………….. 47%
No………………………………………………. 39%
Not sure………………………………………. 15%

The signatures for I-502 have previously been certified by the Secretary of the State’s office, and the measure was sent to the state legislature for farther action. Since the state legislature is not expected to approve the initiative, it will then be placed on the November 2012 ballot for the voters of the state to decide.

Just as we see in national polling, there is a large demographic and ideological divide in the Washington poll. The poll found a majority of voters under the age of 46 would vote for I-502. On the other hand a plurality of voters over the age of 65 oppose the initiative, 35% yes to 45% no. Democrats strongly favor the legalization initiative, 62% yes to 19% no, while Republicans mostly oppose it, 26% yes to 63% no.

With the measure polling at 47 percent yes at the moment, most likely only a few percentage points will ultimately determine if it is narrowly approved or narrowly rejected by voters.  Just like the defeat of Proposition 19 in California in 2010, I-502′s fate will likely depend heavily on who actually turns out to vote. Given the big age divide on the issue, the relative size of the young voter turnout could be decisive.