While the approval of marijuana legalization in Colorado and Washington State has made it easier for politicians to come out in support of legalization, as a group politicians are still well behind the rest of the country on this issue and are risk-adverse. No state currently has a legislature where anywhere near half the members have publicly endorsed marijuana legalization. Most politicians are probably going to wait to see how the federal government responds and how the regulation works in these two states before putting forward their own laws. As with medical marijuana back in the 1990′s, it is likely that more than a half dozens states will approve it at the ballot box before it is finally passed by a state legislature.

That means in the short-term almost all the action will result from initiatives but just under half all states even allow some form of citizen initiative. The next several states to legalize marijuana will most likely come from this group.

Even if a state’s law would allow citizens to put a marijuana legalization question on the ballot, it will fail unless a majority of the voters in the state support legalization. Theoretically, a legalization initiative could be put on the ballot in Utah next year, but it would be destined to fail in such a deeply conservative state.

The easiest way to approximate how much support there is for legalization in a state is to look at how liberal it is. According to Gallup, as a group “Liberals” are the most supportive of marijuana reform and “Conservatives” are among the least. It is safe to assume that the more liberal the state, the more likely it is to support marijuana reform.

Unfortunately, as you can see in this chart of the 20 states with the most Liberals, relatively few allow initiatives. Of the ones that do, the obvious top tier targets are Oregon, California and Massachusetts. Voters in Massachusetts recently overwhelmingly approved both marijuana decriminalization and medical marijuana initiatives. In addition, the vote on local advisory question indicates strong support for legalization. It is probably the most favorable place for a campaign.

In recent elections marijuana initiatives came close to winning approval in California and Oregon, but part of the problem was poorly drafted initiatives as well as funding issues. With better campaigns, better initiatives, and slightly more time for support to grow both states should be in good position in the next few election cycles

The second tier consists of Nevada and Maine. They are not as liberal as the first tier states, but they are significantly more liberal than the country as a whole. Both states were also among the earliest to approve medical marijuana at the ballot box. Maine voters approved of medical marijuana in 1999, while Maine voters approved it in 2000.

Predicting the future is impossible but if one can make reasonable assumptions based on data and previous patterns. Indications are that five states most likely to adopt marijuana legalization next are Massachusetts, California, Oregon, Maine and Nevada – in that order. These will be the top targets for national organizations working to advance the issue.

*data from Gallup about percent Liberal

Over 60% of Massachusetts voters support marijuana legalization

Now that voters in Washington State and Colorado have approved marijuana legalization the obvious question is, what is next step for the reform community? What states are likely to be good targets for similar initiative campaigns in the 2014 or 2016 election?

One state that should be near the top of any such a list is Massachusetts. It is the most liberal state in the country and importantly it allows for citizens to put initiatives on the ballot.

In the past few election voters in the state approved other marijuana reform ballot measures by wide margins. In 2008, an initiative to decriminalize marijuana possession was approved with a 65.2 percent yes vote. Similarly in this recent election a medical marijuana initiative won approval with 63.3 percent voting yes.

The results of local non-binding public policy questions provide even stronger evidence that the state is ready to embrace legalization. In Massachusetts regular people can put non-binding public policy questions on their local ballot to spend a signal to local representatives about where their constituents stand on an issue. This cycle non-binding questions regarding marijuana legalization were on ballot in multiple districts covering roughly 10 percent of state and in each of those districts they won majority support. On average the non-binding marijuana legalization question receive a 66 percent yes vote.

To determine how closely these districts reflect opinions state-wide we can compare the vote on the non-binding legalization questions in these districts to both the Presidential vote and the vote Question 3, the statewide medical marijuana initiative.

The districts with the non-binding legalization questions this year are slightly more liberal and pro-marijuana reform than the rest of the state, but for the most part seem to be fairly representative of opinions state-wide. It is safe to assume a solid majority of voters support the general idea of legalization.

The performance of the non-binding questions provides solid confirmation of a poll last year sponsored by MassCann/NORML, which at the time found 62 percent of voters in the state supported legalizing and regulating marijuana like alcohol.

When all the available data is taken into consideration it overwhelmingly indicates that if a reasonable marijuana legalization initiative had appeared on the Massachusetts ballot this year it likely would have passed. If a well-funded campaign puts a marijuana legalization initiative on the ballot in either 2014 or 2016 its stands a very good chance of winning.

 *A few precincts in Boston were excluded from analysis due to a lack of precincts level breakdown for Question 3

Massachusetts will become the 18th state to allow for the medical use of marijuana, starting January 1st 2013. NBC projects that Question 3 will win approval in the state. With 38.1 percent reporting, the measure is currently leading 62.8 percent yes to 37.2 percent no.

The newly approved initiative allows patients with a written certificate from their doctor to use medical marijuana. Patients will be allowed to possess up to a 60 day supply of marijuana for their medical needs. Patients and caregivers will be required to register with the state’s Department of Public Health.

In addition, the law will allow a limited number of treatment centers to grow, process and provide patients with their medical marijuana. In 2013 there can be no more than 35 such treatment centers in the entire state. All treatment centers will be required to be non-profits and must register with the state.

The initiative will take effect on the first day of 2013 but it may take longer for some aspects of the law to become fully operational.

Medical marijuana, while now legal under state law in 18 states plus the District of Columbia, is still technically illegal under federal law.

Photo by WCHI News used under Creative Commons license.

Boston Globe (9/21-27)
Another issue on the ballot concerns legalizing the use of marijuana for medical purposes. If passed, Issue 3 would eliminate state criminal and civil penalties for the medical use of marijuana by patients who have been diagnosed with a debilitating medical condition such as cancer, glaucoma, HIV, hepatitis, multiple sclerosis and other debilitating diseases. A YES vote on Issue 3 would legalize the use of marijuana for medical purposes. A NO vote would make no change in existing laws.

Based on what you know about this issue, would you vote YES or NO on Issue 3 to legalize the use of marijuana for medical purposes, or don’t you know enough about this to say?

Yes – 69%
No – 22%
Undecided – 5%

The initiative currently has majority support from all partisan groups and all age groups. Even senior citizens, who tend to be the least supportive of marijuana reforms, plan to vote for Question 3 by a 59-31 margin.

While all the public polling of the state this cycle have shown strong support for medical marijuana, this is the largest level of support for the initiative found by poll so far this year. Barring an unprecedented massive shift in public opinion it is basically guaranteed that Massachusetts voters are going to approve medical marijuana this November.

Massachusetts
Public Policy Polling (9/13-16)
Question 3 would eliminate state criminal and civil penalties for the medical use of marijuana by qualifying patients. If the election was today, would you vote yes or no on Question 3?
Yes…………………………………….. 60%
No ……………………………………. 27%
Undecided……………………………14%

The poll found the initiative winning among all age groups and all partisan groups. Democrats overwhelmingly support medical marijuana 67 percent to 20 percent, but it is even backed by a plurality of Republicans. 45 percent of Republicans in the state support it and 41 percent plan to oppose it.

This is a modest improvement from last month when PPP previously polled Massachusetts. In August PPP found that 58 percent of voters planned to support Question 3 and 27 percent planned to vote against it. If the initiative can simply continue to maintain its current level of support it should easily win approval this November and Massachusetts would become the 18th medical marijuana state.

Q29. Question #3 is the Medical Use of Marijuana Proposed Law. A YES VOTE would enact the proposed law eliminating state criminal and civil penalties related to the medical use of marijuana allowing patients meeting certain conditions to obtain marijuana produced and distributed by new state-regulated centers or, in specific hardship cases, to grow marijuana for their own use. A NO VOTE would make no change in existing laws. At this point would you vote yes or no?
Yes ……………………………………….  59%
No ……………………………………….. 35%
(DO NOT READ) Undecided …………. 6%
(DO NOT READ) Refused ……………. 1%

This result is very similar to a PPP poll from last month. It found Question 3 ahead with 58 percent planning to vote yes and only 27 percent planning to vote no.

According to the Suffolk poll, the initiative has majority support in all four regions of the state and among both among genders. The poll even found that a small plurality of senior citizens support the measure, with 47 percent of seniors in support compared to 45 percent opposed. That is impressive given that voters over the age of 65 tend to be least supportive of any kind of marijuana reform.

With multiple polls confirming that the initiative holds a significant lead and the official opposition in the state comically inept, all indications are that Question 3 should win approval this November.

With just 53 days until the November election most state ballots across the country are now set and it is clear that this year should be a historic one for marijuana reform. In addition to there being two state initiative for medical marijuana this November, incredibly three states will be voting on whether or not to fully legalize marijuana for adults. That is the largest number of legalization initiative to ever appear on the ballot in any given election, and more importantly, there is a very good chance one or more of them will win approval.

Marijuana Legalization – Washington, Colorado, Oregon

Washington – Initiative 502 is the legalization measure on the ballot in Washington State promoted by the New Approach Washington campaign. It would legalize up to an ounce of marijuana for adults over the age of 21. In addition, it would create a regulator system for the production, retail sale and taxation of marijuana. The law would create a new DUI standard. Of the three legalization initiatives on the ballot, it currently stand the best chance of passing. The most recent polling shows the initiative holds a large lead of 57% yes to 34% no. In addition, the campaign has raised over $3 million dollars and currently faces very little organized opposition in the state.

Colorado – In the centennial state voters will be deciding on Amendment 64. This initiative would also legalize up to an ounce of marijuana for adults over the age of 21. It would also create a regulator system for its tax, production and sale. Unlike I-502, it would allow for limited home growing and it does not change the law regarding DUI. While marijuana legalization is not polling as well in Colorado as it is in Washington state, Amendment 64 does have a solid lead. The most recent PPP shows it winning 47% yes to 38% no. The campaign has strong fundraising having brought in roughly $1 million to spend on their efforts to legalize it.

Oregon – Measure 80, the Oregon Tax Cannabis Act, is on the ballot here. This would legalize marijuana for adults over 21, allow for personal home growing, and create a regulated system for its sale. There has been very little recent polling on it, however. The last PPP poll from July found 43% of voters in the state think marijuana should be legal and 46% think it should be illegal.

Medical Marijuana – Massachusetts and Arkansas

Massachusetts – Question 3 on the ballot in Massachusetts would permit the medical use of marijuana for people with a doctor’s recommendation and create a limited number of dispensaries in the state to supply patients. All indications are that it will win approval this November making Massachusetts the 18th medical marijuana state. Massachusetts is a very liberal state and its voters have a history of strongly supporting marijuana reform. In 2008, a ballot measure to decriminalize marijuana passed with over 62 percent voting in favor of it. A PPP poll from last month found Question 3 is winning 58% yes to 27% no. The measure’s official opposition is comically disorganized.

Arkansas – If voters approve the Arkansas Medical Marijuana Act it would be the first state in the South to have a medical marijuana system. The law would allow patients with a doctor’s recommendation to use marijuana medically and create a system of non-profit dispensaries. The initiative has qualified for the ballot but a conservative coalition is suing to have it removed. Medical marijuana winning approval by voters in Arkansas would be a powerful signal that it has broad support all across the country.

Image: pashabo / Shutterstock.com

PPP (8/16-19)
Massachusetts
Question 3 would eliminate state criminal and civil penalties for the medical use of marijuana by qualifying patients. If the election was today, would you vote yes or no on Question 3?
Yes………………………………………………………… 58%
No …………………………………………………………. 27%
Undecided………………………………………………. 15%

This is a solid lead for any ballot initiative. Even if the vast majority of undecideds end up breaking against it, which is often what happens with ballot initiatives, Question 3 would still pass easily.

Looking at the internals, Question 3 has majority support from both men and women. It is winning among all age groups and all partisan groups. Basically the only group where a plurality plan to vote against medical marijuana are people who describe themselves as “very conservative.” Very conservative voters are a very small part of the Massachusetts electorate.

During the 2008 election Massachusetts voted for a marijuana decriminalization initiative by a margin of 62.8 percent yes to 33.5 percent no. It looks like medical marijuana should win approval this November by a similar margin.

North Dakota’s election law requires an initiative to have only 13,452 valid signatures to qualify. The Secretary of State has up to 35 days to review the signatures. Unless the Secretary finds an unusually high level of signatures to be invalid, this medical marijuana initiative will likely be officially placed on the November ballot in a month.

If the initiative is approved, it would allow seriously ill patients to use marijuana medically with their doctor’s approval. It would also create a patient registration system that would provide patients with an ID signifying they are allowed to use medical marijuana.

If this North Dakota initiative qualifies, the state will join Massachusetts, which earlier this year had its own medical marijuana initiative officially placed on the November ballot. Currently there 17 states plus the District of Columbia that have approved laws legalizing medical marijuana. If the voters in both these states approve their respective initiatives it could be 19 states before the year is over.

Cannabis sativa. (photo: H. Zell / wikimedia)

I find this article in the Boston Herald a very interesting reflection of how quickly the politics of marijuana have changed in just the past few years. The back story is that in 2008 Question 2, a ballot initiative to decriminalize marijuana possession, made it on the ballot in Massachusetts. The measure was actively opposed by many district attorneys, the Attorney General and the Governor. Despite the opposition from top politicians in the state it ended up passing with an incredible 65.2 percent yes vote, garnering even more votes that President Obama.

This year, another marijuana reform initiative which would legalize medical marijuana has made it on the ballot, but very few of the 2008 opponents of decriminalization are showing any interest in publicly fighting against it. While many of the politicians who actively opposed Question 2 seem to personally oppose this new medical marijuana initiative, this time they are keeping their opinions to themselves. From Boston Herald:

“We are convinced that having easier access to use marijuana is not the correct message to send to our young people,” Coakley said in a 2008 video taken by city cable. This past April [Attorney General Martha] Coakley said implementing a new medical marijuana law while avoiding abuse would be a “huge headache,” but through a spokesperson Coakley this week declined to stake out a position on this November’s marijuana ballot question.

[...]

Gov. Deval Patrick, who opposed the 2008 decriminalization question, has so far declined to take sides in the 2012 question of legalizing medical marijuana.

“I really have to defer to the medical views about this and individuals will get a chance to vote on this,” Patrick said on WBZ in April. He said, “I haven’t been paying much attention to it.”

At least some of this change can probably be attributed to the fact that medical marijuana and marijuana decriminalization are different policies. They have different legal issues and impact different groups. That said, I think the biggest cause of this remarkable change in public stance is due to politicians acknowledging there has been a massive political shift on marijuana.

Just six years ago marijuana legalization was still a relatively fringe position with nearly twice as many Americans opposed it as in support. That meant for much of these politicians’ careers taking a “tough on pot” stance was a political winner, or at least didn’t cost them anything. With the rapidly growing support for marijuana reform, though, politicians seem to be realizing this is longer the case. In just the past year Ellen Rosenblum won the Oregon attorney general Democratic primary by being the more marijuana-friendly candidate. Similarly, Beto O’Rourke, who rose to fame by publicly supporting legalization, accomplished the incredible task of unseating an incumbent member of Congress in the Democratic primary.

At a national level, while the Obama administration is waging an aggressive war on medical marijuana, President Obama is not bragging about being a diligent drug warrior against pot. Instead, the Obama team is actually going out of their way to hide how bad they are on the issue to young voters. Obama went so far as to lie in a Rolling Stone article about the law to try to dodge responsibility for his administration’s actions. In addition, unnamed Obama aides are getting friendly reporters to write stories claiming that despite his terrible track record, we should trust that Obama will be much more pro-reform in his second term. Even Mitt Romney, who personally strongly opposes marijuana use of any kind, seems to really not want to talk about it.

Given the long length of politicians’ careers and low turnover rates the system is going to remain clogged with politicians who came to power in the drug warriors era for awhile, but there does seem to be a growing recognition among some politicians that being publicly seen as some an anti-weed warrior no longer has a political upside.