While the approval of marijuana legalization in Colorado and Washington State has made it easier for politicians to come out in support of legalization, as a group politicians are still well behind the rest of the country on this issue and are risk-adverse. No state currently has a legislature where anywhere near half the members have publicly endorsed marijuana legalization. Most politicians are probably going to wait to see how the federal government responds and how the regulation works in these two states before putting forward their own laws. As with medical marijuana back in the 1990′s, it is likely that more than a half dozens states will approve it at the ballot box before it is finally passed by a state legislature.

That means in the short-term almost all the action will result from initiatives but just under half all states even allow some form of citizen initiative. The next several states to legalize marijuana will most likely come from this group.

Even if a state’s law would allow citizens to put a marijuana legalization question on the ballot, it will fail unless a majority of the voters in the state support legalization. Theoretically, a legalization initiative could be put on the ballot in Utah next year, but it would be destined to fail in such a deeply conservative state.

The easiest way to approximate how much support there is for legalization in a state is to look at how liberal it is. According to Gallup, as a group “Liberals” are the most supportive of marijuana reform and “Conservatives” are among the least. It is safe to assume that the more liberal the state, the more likely it is to support marijuana reform.

Unfortunately, as you can see in this chart of the 20 states with the most Liberals, relatively few allow initiatives. Of the ones that do, the obvious top tier targets are Oregon, California and Massachusetts. Voters in Massachusetts recently overwhelmingly approved both marijuana decriminalization and medical marijuana initiatives. In addition, the vote on local advisory question indicates strong support for legalization. It is probably the most favorable place for a campaign.

In recent elections marijuana initiatives came close to winning approval in California and Oregon, but part of the problem was poorly drafted initiatives as well as funding issues. With better campaigns, better initiatives, and slightly more time for support to grow both states should be in good position in the next few election cycles

The second tier consists of Nevada and Maine. They are not as liberal as the first tier states, but they are significantly more liberal than the country as a whole. Both states were also among the earliest to approve medical marijuana at the ballot box. Maine voters approved of medical marijuana in 1999, while Maine voters approved it in 2000.

Predicting the future is impossible but if one can make reasonable assumptions based on data and previous patterns. Indications are that five states most likely to adopt marijuana legalization next are Massachusetts, California, Oregon, Maine and Nevada – in that order. These will be the top targets for national organizations working to advance the issue.

*data from Gallup about percent Liberal

Young and voting

One important take away from this election may be that if you want to significantly increase youth turnout, put marijuana legalization on the ballot. Both nationally and in the important swing states, the percentage of the vote that came from adults under 30 was basically unchanged since the 2008 election. According to the exit polling data from CNN, the youth vote was 18 percent of the electorate in 2008 and 19 percent of the electorate in this past election.

By comparison, in the three states with marijuana legalization initiatives on the ballot, Colorado, Oregon and Washington State, there was a significant surge in the voters age 18-29. In 2008 young people made up just 14 percent of the vote in Colorado but this year it was 20 percent. Even more incredibly, in Washington State the youth vote went from just 10 percent of the electorate last election to 22 percent this time.

It is theoretically possible that some unrelated factors or bad data caused there to only be a huge increase in the youth vote in these three states but having marijuana legalization initiatives on the ballot appears by far the most likely cause. Young voters overwhelming support marijuana legalization and it is something they strongly care about. This big increase in the youth vote helped Initiative 502 in Washington state and Amendment 64 in Colorado win by such large margins.

It seems that marijuana legalization is uniquely able to get a large number of young adults to turnout to vote in a way almost no other issue can. Marijuana legalization initiatives appeared to have significantly increased youth turnout in both safe presidential states, like Washington, and also in traditional swing states, like Colorado.

The lesson for politicians and political strategists appears to be that if you want to significantly increase youth turnout, make the election about legalizing marijuana.

Image by maireads under Creative Commons License.

While the legalization ballot measure in Washington State and Colorado continue to lead in all the public polling of those two states, Measure 80 has been trailing by a few points. The latest poll for The Oregonian conducted by Elway Research has it currently trailing by seven.

Oregon – Measure 80
Oregonian/Elway (10/25-28)
Yes……….. 42%
No ……….. 49%
Undecided… 9%

The poll not surprisingly found the initiative winning with voters under 35 and Democrats but losing with older voters and Republicans. This is the same basic demographic breakdown on the issue of marijuana legalization we have seen in almost every national and local poll for years. Even if Measure 80 is not approved this November, given the generation break down it will likely be only a few years before a solid majority of the electorate does supports marijuana legalization.

One thing to take into consideration is that Elway Research polls have consistently found significantly lower levels of support for marijuana legalization than other pollsters this year. For example the most recent Elway poll of Washington State found Initiative 502, which would legalize marijuana in the state, only leading 48 percent to 44 percent. By comparison the Strategies 360 poll found it leading 54% to 38%, the SurveyUSA poll found it winning 55% to 36%, and the University of Washington poll had it up 47% to 40%. We will need to wait until the election to find out which pollster was most accurate.

Ballot initiatives in Colorado, Washington and Oregon could be the beginning of the end to an important pillar in the war on drugs: the criminalization of marijuana.

Neither candidate for the highest office in the land will discuss a policy favored by a solid majority of the American public — putting them both well outside the confines of popular opinion on the subject. Colorado, a hotly contested swing state and home of the first presidential debate this year, also happens to be home to Amendment 64 which would tax and regulate marijuana like alcohol. Somehow, neither candidate was asked about or spoke of the initiative while in Colorado, and has barely spoken of it if at all since.

For this and other reasons, many voters feel very left out of this election. Here in America, our choice is between candidates who are committed to talking over us rather than listening, refusing to address the concerns of the average citizen while instead projecting solutions for the ‘problems’ of their big donors on the rest of us. To them, this election is about meeting the needs of those who maintain their power, while finding ways to placate the rest of us just enough to stave off civil unrest – so if we want an end to prohibition, we’ll have to roll up our sleeves and do it ourselves.

Unfortunately, because neither candidate supports marijuana reform, and both oppose it with varying degrees of tenacity, the path forward on drug reform will not mirror that of movements for LGBTQ equality, which were able to rest election year concessions from the president by threatening to withhold their support. To the contrary, growing support among the public for marijuana reforms have been me with relatively no change in courage from the policial classes, which has in-turn forced marijuana reformers to make their appeals directly to voters.

Put simply and without exaggeration, an end to the prohibition of marijuana lays squarely in your hands, regardless of the state in which you reside.

If you live in one of the states bravely seeking to strike down prohibition this year than your mission is clear: you need to get every registered voter you know to cast their vote for reform — friends, family, colleagues. Just Say Now has the information you need to volunteer for the campaigns in these final weeks, whether it be calling neighbors, handing out flyers or sharing info online. If you’d like to volunteer, you can reach us at justsaynow@firedoglake.com.

If you don’t live in these states and want to see marijuana reform in your own community, make no mistake: this is your time to act. If we can break the seal and legalize marijuana in at least one state this year, the impact on the 2014 election could be monumental — it could inspire other states to employ similar models and campaigns to strike down their own prohibitions, and build a challenge to the federal posture on marijuana laws (and other drug laws) that have destroyed lives and communities for over 30 years.

In the past month, Just Say Now has logged over 2,000 calls to voters in Colorado and Oregon, and will continue to push for the end to prohibition featured on several ballots throughout the nation. If we fail in these final weeks to reach out and speak to voters in Colorado, Washington and Oregon, it could be a serious set-back for the movement. This is an all-hands-on-deck moment for the marijuana movement; please help us do more by RSVPing to call voters, or by making a few calls right now in support of legalizing marijuana.

Oregon
SurveyUSA (9/10-13)
On Measure 80, which would allow adults to grow and possess marijuana, and allow state-licensed stores to grow and sell marijuana to adults, are you …? Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain?
37% Yes
41% No
22% Not Certain

According to the poll the measure is supported by voters under the age of 35 but its problem is that it is even more strongly opposed by older voters. Only 22 percent of senior citizens plan to vote to legalize marijuana while 53 percent plan to vote against it. Older Americans tend to turnout to vote in high percentages than younger Americans.

An initiative trailing by any amount at this point in the election is bad news. Turning around a deficit in the polling is never easy, but the small silver lining for the campaign is that the poll found a very large number of voters are still undecided. According to SurveyUSA almost a quarter of the electorate has not yet formed an opinion about the initiative. Measure 80 could theoretically still win but if the campaign was able to persuade a large number of the undecided voters it is the right move for the state.

With just 53 days until the November election most state ballots across the country are now set and it is clear that this year should be a historic one for marijuana reform. In addition to there being two state initiative for medical marijuana this November, incredibly three states will be voting on whether or not to fully legalize marijuana for adults. That is the largest number of legalization initiative to ever appear on the ballot in any given election, and more importantly, there is a very good chance one or more of them will win approval.

Marijuana Legalization – Washington, Colorado, Oregon

Washington – Initiative 502 is the legalization measure on the ballot in Washington State promoted by the New Approach Washington campaign. It would legalize up to an ounce of marijuana for adults over the age of 21. In addition, it would create a regulator system for the production, retail sale and taxation of marijuana. The law would create a new DUI standard. Of the three legalization initiatives on the ballot, it currently stand the best chance of passing. The most recent polling shows the initiative holds a large lead of 57% yes to 34% no. In addition, the campaign has raised over $3 million dollars and currently faces very little organized opposition in the state.

Colorado – In the centennial state voters will be deciding on Amendment 64. This initiative would also legalize up to an ounce of marijuana for adults over the age of 21. It would also create a regulator system for its tax, production and sale. Unlike I-502, it would allow for limited home growing and it does not change the law regarding DUI. While marijuana legalization is not polling as well in Colorado as it is in Washington state, Amendment 64 does have a solid lead. The most recent PPP shows it winning 47% yes to 38% no. The campaign has strong fundraising having brought in roughly $1 million to spend on their efforts to legalize it.

Oregon – Measure 80, the Oregon Tax Cannabis Act, is on the ballot here. This would legalize marijuana for adults over 21, allow for personal home growing, and create a regulated system for its sale. There has been very little recent polling on it, however. The last PPP poll from July found 43% of voters in the state think marijuana should be legal and 46% think it should be illegal.

Medical Marijuana – Massachusetts and Arkansas

Massachusetts – Question 3 on the ballot in Massachusetts would permit the medical use of marijuana for people with a doctor’s recommendation and create a limited number of dispensaries in the state to supply patients. All indications are that it will win approval this November making Massachusetts the 18th medical marijuana state. Massachusetts is a very liberal state and its voters have a history of strongly supporting marijuana reform. In 2008, a ballot measure to decriminalize marijuana passed with over 62 percent voting in favor of it. A PPP poll from last month found Question 3 is winning 58% yes to 27% no. The measure’s official opposition is comically disorganized.

Arkansas – If voters approve the Arkansas Medical Marijuana Act it would be the first state in the South to have a medical marijuana system. The law would allow patients with a doctor’s recommendation to use marijuana medically and create a system of non-profit dispensaries. The initiative has qualified for the ballot but a conservative coalition is suing to have it removed. Medical marijuana winning approval by voters in Arkansas would be a powerful signal that it has broad support all across the country.

Image: pashabo / Shutterstock.com

The Oregon Cannabis Tax Act will appear on the ballot as “Measure 80.” The vast majority of the tax revenue generated by the sale of marijuana would go to the state general fund. Eight percent of the money raised as a result of the initiative would be set aside for drug treatment and education programs. An additional two percent would be used to promote hemp products.

A survey from earlier this month by Public Policy Polling found Oregon voters closely divided on the issue of marijuana legalization. According to the poll 43 percent of Oregon voters think the use of marijuana should be legal, while 46 percent think marijuana should be illegal.

This makes Oregon now the third state this year to have a marijuana legalization initiative qualify for the November ballot. It joins Washington State and Colorado, both of which had legalization initiatives qualify for their respective ballots earlier in the cycle.

The voters of Oregon are evenly split on the issue of marijuana legalization, according to a new survey from Public Policy Polling. The poll found that 43 percent of voters think the use of marijuana should be legal, while 46 percent think in general that using marijuana should remain illegal. This three point divide is within the poll’s 3.7% margin of error. From PPP:

Oregon
PPP (6/21-24)
In general, do you think marijuana usage should be legal or illegal?
Legal ……………………………………………………… 43%
Illegal …………………………………………………….. 46%
Not sure ………………………………………………….. 11%

There is a large partisan divide on the issue of marijuana legalization. A majority of Democrats support it (56% legal -30% illegal) and so do a plurality of Independents (47% legal -38% illegal). What keeps overall support down, though, is that Republicans in the state strongly oppose it, 75 percent think it should be illegal while just 19 percent of them think it should be legal.

The large age divide on the issue indicates time is clearly on the side of marijuana legalization supporters, though. The majority of voters under 46 think marijuana use should be legal, but that is countered by strong opposition from senior citizens. As time goes on and the older generations are naturally replaced by the young ones, support for legalization should continue to grow.

Barring a major cultural shift on the issue, it is only a matter of time before the demographic trends result in a solid majority of voters in Oregon believing cannabis should be legal.

If supporters can get the initiative on the ballot and approved by voters, it would allow any adult over 21 to buy pot at a state licensed store or grow it in Oregon.

Supporters of the idea say it would generate hundreds of millions of dollars for the state each year.

Chief petitioner, Paul Stanford, has been leading the effort to legalize marijuana in Oregon since 1984. This time he said he thinks even the name of the measure will get people to pay attention: “The Oregon Cannabis Tax Act.”

Getting sufficient signatures to put an initiative on the ballot is a very difficult task, but there is a good chance that groups in a few state will succeed in getting marijuana legalization questions on the ballot.

Oregon officials are casting a wider net over allegations that law enforcement officers statewide violated election laws when they discussed Measure 74, the medical marijuana initiative.

On Friday, Sgt. Erik Fisher of the Oregon State Police drug-enforcement section became part of a Secretary of State investigation based on a complaint filed by Williams resident Laird Funk. He specifically cited comments made by Fisher in articles in the Mail Tribune and Eugene Register-Guard.

Previously, a complaint had been filed against Medford Police Chief Randy Schoen, Medford Assistant Chief Tim George and Medford Lt. Tim Doney. In all, nine Oregon police officers have been accused of campaigning against the measure.

Others on the complaint list received by the Secretary of State’s office include police chiefs in Gold Beach, Brookings and Keizer, the Deschutes County sheriff and a police detective in Grants Pass.

The officers are accused of making statements against Measure 74, including one officer who baselessly stated that Oregon would “become the source for the illegal marijuana trade throughout the country.” That job, of course, is held by the Mexican drug cartels, which get 60% of their profits from the sale of marijuana in the US.

Sound familiar, by the way? South Dakota’s state police were also accused this month of fighting Measure 13, the ballot initiative to bring medical marijuana to South Dakota patients.

While the latest polls show an uphill battle for Measure 74, there’s still time to help. Oregon is a vote-by-mail state, so if you’re in Oregon: find your ballot, mark “Yes” on Measure 74, and drop it off at a ballot box by 8pm tonight! If you’re not in Oregon but want to help pass Measure 74, call Oregon voters now and make sure they turn in their ballots!