District of Columbia

According to a new PPP poll for the Marijuana Policy Project, the people of Washington D.C. overwhelming support marijuana legalization.

If a legalization initiative, like the ones on the ballot last year in Colorado and Washington State, was to be placed on the ballot in the District it would be supported by 63 percent of D.C. voters. The poll found only 30 percent of District residents would oppose it.

The poll found even greater support for taking the smaller step of decriminalizing marijuana in the city. An incredible 75 percent of District voters would support dropping the penalty for possession of up to an ounce of marijuana to just a civil violation resulting in a $100 ticket. Only 21 percent of voters would oppose this change. Currently, marijuana possession is punishable with up to six months in jail.

The District is both younger and significantly more liberal than the rest of the country. Marijuana reform polls very well and D.C. law allows for ballot initiatives. These four factors should make it the top target for a marijuana reform initiative next year but there is one huge possible legal issue – Congress.

Congress technically still has the ability to override any laws in the nation’s capital and occasionally does. For example in 1998 District residents approved a medical marijuana initiative but Congress prevented the District from implementing that law for two decades.

This created a real dilemma for the marijuana reform movement. Even though the voters of D.C. are ready to fully legalize marijuana, it may politically make more sense to only push for decriminalization in the near future. While Congress might feel compelled to act against legalization in their own backyard, they are less likely to interfere with decriminalization.

Photo by Mr. T in DC released under Creative Commons License

The voters of Minnesota overwhelmingly want to see medical marijuana approved in their state. According to a new survey by Public Policy Polling for the Marijuana Policy Project, voters in the state back medical marijuana by greater than a two-to-one margin.

Minnesota
PPP (3/1-2)
Do you support or oppose changing the law in Minnesota to allow people with serious and terminal illnesses to use medical marijuana if their doctors recommend it?
Support  ………………. 65%
Oppose ………………. 27%
Not sure ………………. 8%

As with all polling about marijuana-related issues, there is a big generational divide. An incredible 87 percent of voters under the age of 35 support medical marijuana, while only 47 percent of senior citizens support the change.

Unfortunately, despite the overwhelming support for medical marijuana in the state, it seems unlikely that any new law will be approved this year. According the Star Tribune it is unlikely that the legislature will take up this issue this session.

Photo by marijuana2007b under Creative Commons license.

A solid majority of American voters think marijuana should be legal according to new Public Policy Polling.  The recent poll found that 58 percent of voters think marijuana should be legal, while 39 percent think it should remain illegal. Most of those who oppose marijuana legalization feel strongly that it should remain illegal, while support for legalization is fairly evenly split between those who feel strongly about it and those who don’t. The poll also found that 50 percent of voters think marijuana will be legal in the United States within the next 10 years, while only 37 percent think it will not be legal.

Democrats and Independents overwhelmingly believe marijuana should be legalized, but a majority of Republicans oppose the policy change. There is also a significant generational divide when it comes to opinions about legalization. Voters under thirty are most likely to feel strongly that marijuana should be legal while senior citizens tend to feel strongly that it should remain illegal. Interestingly, young voters are actually the most pessimistic about legalization future. The poll found 52 percent think it will not be fully legalized in the next ten years, while 48 percent think it will. On the other hand, 51 percent of voters over the age of 65 think legalization will happen in the next decade, while just 32 percent think it won’t.

While this poll shows some of the highest levels of support for marijuana legalization of any recent national survey, it should be noted that PPP’s polling on marijuana legalization initiatives has proven to be remarkably accurate in the past two election cycles. In 2010, PPP very accurately predicted the overall yes vote for Proposition 19 in California. Similarly, PPP’s final polling in Colorado and Washington State this cycle very closely matched the final results.

The full poll results can be found at the Marijuana Policy Project Blog.

Photo by boodoo under Creative Commons license.

Just as with Proposition 19 in California last cycle, the final set of polls in both Washington State and Colorado proved to be very useful. In Washington State the polls near perfectly predicted the percent of the vote Initiative 502 would get. While in Colorado the final polls slightly understated Amendment 64 support.

Overall the actual yes vote on marijuana legalization initiatives tended to slightly exceed the level of support found in final polls. Going forward the lesson seems to be that as long as a marijuana legalization initiative is polling at just around 50 percent support before the election, it is likely to pass.

The one thing that made the polling in this election different from 2010 is that the polls remained remarkably stable throughout the campaign. In 2010, Prop 19 was ahead in the polling during the summer but support collapsed in the final month. By comparison support for Initiative 502 and Amendment 64 remained almost unchanged with no drop at the end. SurveyUSA’s first poll on I-502 back in July found 55 percent of voters planning to support it, and every poll they conducted consistently found support between 55%-57%. Similarly, all of PPP polling since August consistently had Amendment 64 winning by roughly eight to nine points.

This past election basically proves that the 2010 Prop 19 last minute drop in the polls was due only to issues specifically related to that initiative/campaign; it wasn’t some natural tendency for voters get cold feet about marijuana legalization initiatives at the last minute.

The lesson for potential future efforts seems to be that as long as the polling roughly a year out from the election shows just over 50 percent support for the general idea of legalizing marijuana, a well written initiative backed by a good campaign stands a solid chance of being approved. There are several states that should likely meet this criterion in 2014 or 2016.

Washington State – Initiative 502
PPP (11/1-3)
Initiative Measure No. 502 would license and regulate marijuana production, distribution, and possession for persons over 21; remove state law criminal and civil penalties for activities that it authorizes; tax marijuana sales; and earmark marijuana-related revenues. If the election was today, would you vote ‘yes’ or ‘no’ on Initiative 502?
Yes 53%
No 44%
Undecided 3%

All the recent public polling in Washington has found I-502 above the 50 percent mark needed for passage. The SurveyUSA poll from last week found it leading 56 percent to 37 percent and the Washington Poll had it ahead 55.4 percent to 37.6 percent.

During the 2010 election, PPP’s final poll of Proposition 19 in California ended up very accurately predicting how much support that marijuana legalization initiative would get. PPP’s last poll right before the 2010 election found Prop 19 at 44 percent support and on election day it got 46.5 percent of the vote. Assuming PPP’s polling of marijuana initiatives ends up being as accurate this election as it was last cycle, Washington should make history by approving I-502 tomorrow.

There is good reason to be optimistic that 2012 will be a historic year for marijuana reform. In the final week before the election, marijuana legalization initiatives on the ballot this year are doing much better in the polls compared to a similar initiative on the California ballot in 2010 election.

Both Washington State and Colorado have marijuana legalization initiatives on the ballot and every recent poll of the two states found the respective initiatives with at least the same lead. By comparison, in the last week of the 2010 cycle the polling of Proposition 19, which would have legalized marijuana in California, had turned negative. The final polls of Proposition 19 all had the measure narrowly losing. After all the votes were counted Prop 19 ended up being defeated 46.5 percent yes to 53.5 percent no.

Since some of the same pollsters who surveyed Prop 19 in 2010 have also been polling the marijuana legalization initiatives this cycle it is possible to do a direct comparison. In their final polls of California in 2010 both SurveyUSA and Public Policy Polling accurately predicted how much support Prop 19 would end up getting. Both final polls had it 44 percent yes and it ended up getting 46.5 percent. A slight increase is to expected as the undecideds are finally forced to make a choice. This year the pollsters have the initiatives in Washington State and Colorado at over 50 percent support.

If these two pollsters prove to be as accurate with their marijuana legalization ballot measures polls this election as they were last cycle, the initiatives in Colorado and Washington State will likely be approved.

Photo by WCHI News used under Creative Commons license.

(photo: WCHI News / flickr)

Colorado’s Amendment 64, which would legalize marijuana and regulate it like alcohol, holds a ten point lead according to the latest PPP survey of the state. The poll finds 53 percent of likely voters plan to support the initiative, while only 43 percent plan to vote against it. This is the highest level of support for Amendment 64 found in any public polling in months.

Colorado
PPP (10/23-25)
Amendment 64 is an amendment to the Colorado constitution concerning marijuana, and, in connection therewith, providing for the regulation of marijuana; permitting a person twenty-one years of age or older to consume or possess limited amounts of marijuana; providing for the licensing of cultivation facilities, product manufacturing facilities, testing facilities, and retail stores; permitting local governments to regulate or prohibit such facilities; requiring the general assembly to enact an excise tax to be levied upon wholesale sales of marijuana; requiring that the first $40 million in revenue raised annually by such tax be credited to the public school capital construction assistance fund; and requiring the general assembly to enact legislation governing the cultivation, processing, and sale of industrial hemp. If the election was today, would you vote or against Amendment 64?
For ……………………..53%
Against………………..43%
Undecided …………….. 5%

Unlike some other polls of the state, PPP used the actual ballot language in their question, which can be important for accuracy. There can be a noticeable variation in polling about the issue of marijuana legalization depending on the exact wording used. Having the question explicitly state that marijuana would be highly regulated, taxed, and age-restricted tends to make Americans more supportive of the idea of legalizing it.

The last time PPP asked about Amendment 64 in Colorado was at the beginning September. At the time it found 47 percent of likely voters support the ballot initiative while 38 percent opposed. Both the level of support and opposition have increased by roughly the same margin, which is good news for Amendment 64 since undecideds normally break against initiatives as election day gets closer.

While it is going to be extremely close, this poll is a solid indication that the voters of Colorado are likely to legalize marijuana this November. With less than two weeks until the election, every public poll released currently shows it with a small but real lead.

Massachusetts
PPP (10/9-11)
Question 2 would allow a physician licensed in Massachusetts to prescribe medication, at the request of a terminally ill patient meeting certain conditions, to end that person’s life. If the election was today, would you vote yes or no on Question 2?
Yes ………………………………………………………… 56%
No ………………………………………………………… 30%
Undecided ……………………………………………… 14%

Support for the ballot measures remains strong and mostly unchanged throughout the campaign. The PPP from last month had it leading 60 percent yes to 27 percent no, and their poll from August had found it ahead 58 percent yes to 24 percent no.

Given the liberal leanings of the state and the lack of any serious opposition there is no reason to believe support for the initiative will drop significantly in next 26 days.

Massachusetts
Public Policy Polling (9/13-16)
Question 3 would eliminate state criminal and civil penalties for the medical use of marijuana by qualifying patients. If the election was today, would you vote yes or no on Question 3?
Yes…………………………………….. 60%
No ……………………………………. 27%
Undecided……………………………14%

The poll found the initiative winning among all age groups and all partisan groups. Democrats overwhelmingly support medical marijuana 67 percent to 20 percent, but it is even backed by a plurality of Republicans. 45 percent of Republicans in the state support it and 41 percent plan to oppose it.

This is a modest improvement from last month when PPP previously polled Massachusetts. In August PPP found that 58 percent of voters planned to support Question 3 and 27 percent planned to vote against it. If the initiative can simply continue to maintain its current level of support it should easily win approval this November and Massachusetts would become the 18th medical marijuana state.

This is completely unchanged since last month, when PPP asked the same question. In early August Amendment 64 polled at 47 percent for to 38 percent against.

Being able to hold onto a steady nine point lead is good news for the campaign. In general support for ballot initiatives tends to drop as it gets closer to the election, but if Amendment 64 can simply maintain its current level of support it stands a decent chance of narrowly passing this November.

In this poll, in addition to asking the actual ballot question, PPP also decided to ask the the generic question, “in general, do you think marijuana should be legal or illegal.” When asked this question 49 percent of voters said they thought it should be legal and 43 percent said they thought it should be illegal, with 9 percent not sure.

Most likely almost everyone who says they oppose marijuana legalization in general will end up voting against Amendment 64, but voters opposed to marijuana legalization are only a minority in the state.

As almost always happens there are some people who say they support a concept in the abstract but may oppose an actual piece of legalization because of its specifics. Fortunately for the Amendment 64 campaign in this instance that appears to be a very small issue.