With the Supreme Court set to hear testimony on same-sex marriage cases this week there has been a lot of talk about how the demographics is destiny for the issue. Many have pointed to that a new Washington Post poll that found 81 percent of adults under the age of 30 support marriage equality, which [...]

 From the working paper: Politicians are much more likely to erroneously believe that their constituents are more conservative than they actually are than to erroneously believe that their constituents are more liberal than they actually are. As demonstrated by the loess curves, candidates generally overestimate the degree to which their constituents hold conservative views on [...]