65% of Kentucky voters also want hemp growing legalized

Even in overwhelmingly Republican-leaning states like Kentucky, the vast majority of voters support allowing medical marijuana.

According to a new SurveyUSA poll for the Courier-Journal, 60 percent of voters would support legalizing marijuana for prescribed medical use. Only 31 percent of voters in the state oppose medical marijuana. While support is strongest among young voters, even a plurality of senior citizens would support the state adopting medical marijuana.

When it comes to allowing Kentucky farmers to again grow industrial hemp, opinion is even more one-sided. The poll found 65 percent think hemp should be permitted to be grown in Kentucky, with only 22 percent opposed. Hopefully this poll well help the effort by Kentucky’s two senators, Rand Paul (R) and Mitch McConnell (R), to legalize hemp production.

SurveyUSA also asked about legalizing marijuana for recreational use. While a plurality of voters in the state remain opposed to that change, the numbers were surprisingly close for such a conservative state. It found 39 percent would support the full legalization of marijuana, while 49 percent would currently oppose the change. By comparison, President Obama got just under 38 percent of the vote in Kentucky last year. It appears Colorado isn’t the only state where marijuana legalization is more popular than the President.

Not surprisingly a majority of voters under the age of 35 back legalization, while seniors citizens overwhelmingly oppose it. Support for legalization in Kentucky should naturally grow in the coming years due to the natural turnover in the demographics.

Photo by CSLP under Creative Commons license

Just as with Proposition 19 in California last cycle, the final set of polls in both Washington State and Colorado proved to be very useful. In Washington State the polls near perfectly predicted the percent of the vote Initiative 502 would get. While in Colorado the final polls slightly understated Amendment 64 support.

Overall the actual yes vote on marijuana legalization initiatives tended to slightly exceed the level of support found in final polls. Going forward the lesson seems to be that as long as a marijuana legalization initiative is polling at just around 50 percent support before the election, it is likely to pass.

The one thing that made the polling in this election different from 2010 is that the polls remained remarkably stable throughout the campaign. In 2010, Prop 19 was ahead in the polling during the summer but support collapsed in the final month. By comparison support for Initiative 502 and Amendment 64 remained almost unchanged with no drop at the end. SurveyUSA’s first poll on I-502 back in July found 55 percent of voters planning to support it, and every poll they conducted consistently found support between 55%-57%. Similarly, all of PPP polling since August consistently had Amendment 64 winning by roughly eight to nine points.

This past election basically proves that the 2010 Prop 19 last minute drop in the polls was due only to issues specifically related to that initiative/campaign; it wasn’t some natural tendency for voters get cold feet about marijuana legalization initiatives at the last minute.

The lesson for potential future efforts seems to be that as long as the polling roughly a year out from the election shows just over 50 percent support for the general idea of legalizing marijuana, a well written initiative backed by a good campaign stands a solid chance of being approved. There are several states that should likely meet this criterion in 2014 or 2016.

There is good reason to be optimistic that 2012 will be a historic year for marijuana reform. In the final week before the election, marijuana legalization initiatives on the ballot this year are doing much better in the polls compared to a similar initiative on the California ballot in 2010 election.

Both Washington State and Colorado have marijuana legalization initiatives on the ballot and every recent poll of the two states found the respective initiatives with at least the same lead. By comparison, in the last week of the 2010 cycle the polling of Proposition 19, which would have legalized marijuana in California, had turned negative. The final polls of Proposition 19 all had the measure narrowly losing. After all the votes were counted Prop 19 ended up being defeated 46.5 percent yes to 53.5 percent no.

Since some of the same pollsters who surveyed Prop 19 in 2010 have also been polling the marijuana legalization initiatives this cycle it is possible to do a direct comparison. In their final polls of California in 2010 both SurveyUSA and Public Policy Polling accurately predicted how much support Prop 19 would end up getting. Both final polls had it 44 percent yes and it ended up getting 46.5 percent. A slight increase is to expected as the undecideds are finally forced to make a choice. This year the pollsters have the initiatives in Washington State and Colorado at over 50 percent support.

If these two pollsters prove to be as accurate with their marijuana legalization ballot measures polls this election as they were last cycle, the initiatives in Colorado and Washington State will likely be approved.

Photo by WCHI News used under Creative Commons license.

I-502 logo in Washington

With less than a week until election day, Initiative 502, which would legalize and regulation marijuana in Washington state for adults, maintains a solid lead in the latest polling. The new SurveyUSA/KING 5 poll finds that a large majority plan to, or already have, voted in support of legalizing marijuana.

Washington State – Initiative 502
SurveyUSA (10/28-31)
Yes 56%
No 37%
Not Sure 7%

Support for the I-502 has remained remarkably consistent in SurveyUSA’s polling throughout this election cycle. This new poll is basically unchanged from their poll two weeks ago which found it lead 55 percent to 36 percent.

While some pollsters have found I-502 with a smaller single-digit advantage, every public poll released in the past month has found the yes side in the lead.

With just five days until the election, Initiative 502′s chance of winning approval looks extremely good.

(photo: Federacion de asociaciones cannabicas / flickr)

Of the three marijuana legalization measures on the ballot this November, Initiative 502 in Washington State continues to do the best in the polls. With less than three weeks until election day and ballots already being mailed out to voters, I-502 still holds a big lead in the latest King 5/SurveyUSA poll.

According to the SurveyUSA poll, 55 percent of likely voters plan to vote for the I-502, which would legalize possession of up to an ounce of marijuana for adults and create a regulatory system for its sale. Only 36 percent of likely voters say they oppose the initiative, with an additional 8 percent still undecided.

Support for the initiative has remained mostly unchanged throughout the cycle. Early in the month the same pollster found it winning 57 percent yes to 33 percent no, which was nearly identical to the result from their September polling.

The one potential warning sign is that there is a second poll of the state out today from the University of Washington. It also shows I-502 leading but by a much smaller margin. The Washington Poll found the I-502 at 47.1 percent yes to 40.1 percent no.

If the voters of Washington approve I-502 not only would it be a remarkable development for the state, but it would likely have serious far reaching implications for the entire country. Having one or more states legalize marijuana this November could likely spark a national conversation about our current marijuana policies.

Amendment 64, which would legalize marijuana and regulate it like alcohol in Colorado, continues to hold a narrow lead. The most recent SurveyUSA poll for the Denver Post found that 48 percent plan to vote for the initiative while 43 percent plan to vote against it.

As expected, the polling has tightened up as we get close to election day. The previous SurveyUSA/Denver Post poll from September found Amendment 64 leading 51 percent yes to 40 percent no.

Interestingly, this is the second recent poll of Colorado that found more voters are currently planning to support marijuana legalization than support either of the major presidential candidates. This same SurveyUSA poll of the presidential race in Colorado has Mitt Romney at 46 percent, President Obama at 45 percent, and Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson at 2 percent.

The University of Denver poll from last week also found that Amendment 64 is more popular than either major party candidate. It found 50 percent of likely voters planning to back the marijuana legalization initiative. By comparison, the poll found only 47 percent were planning to vote for Obama and 43 percent for Romney.

The Presidential race in the Colorado is currently very close and features several minor candidates. It is likely whichever candidate wins will end up doing so with only a plurality, just under 50 percent. That means there is the real possibility that Amendment 64 could not only narrowly win this November, but it could do so with a greater share of the vote than any presidential candidate.

The latest SurveyUSA poll for King 5 News found that 57 percent of likely voters in the state plan to back the ballot measure while only 33 percent oppose it and another 10 percent remain undecided.

This is effectively unchanged since a month ago when SurveyUSA previously polled Washington. In September, the pollster found I-502 leading by a margin of 57 percent to 34 percent.

Ballot measures tend to lose support as it gets closer to election day, so the fact that support for I-502 has not dropped at all over the past month is a very good sign for the campaign. It seems most voters have already made up their minds about the initiative and aren’t changing them.

Given the current lack of a well funded organized opposition there is a very good chance the campaign will be able to continue holding on to its strong support.

According to a SurveyUSA poll for King 5, the initiative is currently supported by 57* percent of likely voters in the state. The poll found only 34 percent say they oppose the measure while another 9 percent are currently undecided.

Even if all the undecided end up breaking against the initiative, which tends to happen with ballot measures, I-502 should still easily be able to win approval. If the campaign can simply maintain most of its current level of support it would likely get over 50 percent on election day. That should be an achievable goal given that there is currently very little organized opposition to I-502 in the state.

Beside the fact that the I-502 is polling over 50 percent and holds a huge lead, the other good news from this poll is that support for legalization appears to be growing as we get closer to November. Two months ago the same pollsters previously asked about I-502  and found it had a smaller lead with 55 percent in support to 32 percent opposed. This far out from the election having a positive trend line in the polling is sometimes a more reassuring development for a campaign than having a solid lead at the moment.

It would currently appear that Washington is the state most likely to legalize marijuana this November, but it might not be the only one. Marijuana legalization initiatives also qualified for the ballots in Oregon and Colorado this year. While the polling for the Colorado initiative is not as good, recent polling did find it has a nine point lead. It stands a decent chance of narrowly winning approval.

*Updated: the poll result provided by King 5′s website did not match the numbers provided by the pollster. Post was updated with the results directly the pollster’s website.

A state initiative would license and regulate marijuana production, distribution and possession for people 21 and over. It would remove state criminal and civil penalties for limited possession of marijuana, impose an excise tax on marijuana sales and earmark some revenue for substance abuse prevention, research and education. Should the measure be enacted into law?

Yes …………. 55%
No…………… 32%
Not Sure …. 13%

It is important to note that this poll uses basically the same official language to describe the measure as will appear on the ballot this November.  Sometimes initiative poll questions that simply ask about the general concept are less informative.  This poll, which uses the exact language voters will be presented at the election should be more accurate.

As we have seen in most polls about marijuana legalization, there is a large age and partisan divide. The poll found that a majority of all groups under age 65 support the initiative, while only a slim plurality of people over 65 support it. The poll also found that large majorities of Democrats and Independents in Washington think marijuana should be legalized, but a majority of Republicans oppose the measure. As a result, who actually turns out to vote will be very important to the fate of the measure.

The fact that the I-502 is polling at over 50 percent and leading by a 23 point margin means it has a very real chance of winning this November. Even if the vast majority of undecided voters break against the measure, which is normally how the undecided end up voting when it comes to ballot initiatives, I-502 would still win as long as it simply holds all the people who currently support it.

By comparison, at this point in 2010 SurveyUSA found Proposition 19, an initiative to legalize marijuana in California, was polling at just 50 percent yes to 40 percent no. Prop 19 eventually failed narrowly, with 46.5 percent voting yes to 53.5 percent voting no. At no point in 2010 did any public polling find that Prop 19 was leading by as large a margin as I-502 has in this new poll.

A recent poll reveals that California voters, by a 62% to 35% margin, with 3% unsure, support a ballot initiative to regulate marijuana like wine.

The statewide poll, by Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates, Inc. surveyed 800 likely voters and found that 80% of the respondents agreed to the statement, “State and federal drug laws are outdated and have failed, therefore, we need to take a new approach that makes sense for today.”

This is a poll commissioned by the Regulate Marijuana Like Wine campaign to help raise awareness for the effort to get their initiative on the ballot, so the results may be questioned.  Still these are some very good numbers for a marijuana legalization poll.

This is the highest level of support I’ve seen in any poll of California about the issue of marijuana legalization. The previous best poll numbers on this issue I can remember were in a Field poll in April of 2009 and a SurveyUSA poll in April 2010.

The Field poll from April 2009 found that 56 percent of California voters supported legalizing marijuana for recreational use and taxing the proceeds. The SurveyUSA poll from Apirl 2010 found that 56 percent of California adults thought the state should legalize marijuana while 42 percent thought the state shouldn’t. Polling of all adults instead of just registered voters tends to find more liberal results.

In 2010 California Proposition 19 only failed by a vote of 46.5% yes – 53.5% no. That was a non-presidential year that also had an unusually conservative turnout, a very unfavorable climate for the initiative. Given that the general trend in the country has been towards more acceptance of marijuana legalization, it wouldn’t be at all surprising if the voters in California approve a marijuana legalization ballot initiative before the end of this decade.